Stalled race to reopen ahead of the summer holiday season
Exclusive research and analysis indicates that while advancements have been made to restore international mobility levels to pre-pandemic levels, progress has been slow and is primarily limited to business or emergency travel. Commenting in Global Mobility Report 2021 Q3, political science researchers Uğur Altundal and Ömer Zarpli of Syracuse University and the University of Pittsburgh, respectively, state that “there was a 97% drop in international travel in April 2020 compared to April 2019, pre-COVID. Between January and March 2021, this had improved marginally to 88%, with business and essential travel the primary drivers of the recovery of just 12% of previous global mobility”.
International leisure travel remains less than 10% of pre-COVID levels and is largely regional as opposed to trans-continental and likely to remain so throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere’s summer tourism season. Altundal and Zarpli also highlight that while most countries are now gradually relaxing inbound travel restrictions for international visitors, the impact of the coronavirus on tourism has been severe. Since the pandemic was declared, the EU has seen a drop in tourism of nearly 90%, the UK has had a 73% decline in tourist numbers, and the US has experienced a 69% decrease in visitors. Some countries continue to retain strictly closed borders, with those holding the top spots on the Henley Passport Index — Japan, Singapore, and Germany — among them.
Lack of global consensus on vaccine passports
Despite the progress of vaccine rollouts and the easing of inbound travel restrictions in certain parts of the world, regional trend analyses suggest that caution will remain the order of the day as governments attempt to manage the risks associated with the spread of new variants of concern. Dr. Hannah White OBE, Deputy Director of the Institute for Government in London, says: “As the UK government assesses the global impact of new, more transmissible Covid-19 variants, migration to and from the UK is being governed by a traffic light system. Despite a successful domestic vaccination program, COVID-19 restrictions will continue to create uncertainty for UK mobility prospects well into 2022.”
Robert Maciejewski, CEO of SIP Medical Family Office in Switzerland, comments that while there are various complex issues that health passports need to address, including the likelihood of internationally accepted standards between governments, widespread adoption of COVID passports appears to be an imminent reality for those able to access them. “Even if a legal obligation to obtain a COVID passport is unlikely in most democratic countries, not having one will probably result in de facto restrictions of your freedom, whether it comes to travel or to daily routine activities. Access to healthcare remains a critical consideration for international families. You want to still be able to consult your doctor of choice and access top hospitals and clinics.”
IATA, the global trade association for airlines, welcomed the move by many states to exempt vaccinated travelers from quarantine. However, it warned that travel should not be restricted to those who have access to vaccination. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, says “the freedom to travel is important. Data shows us that vaccinated travelers should not be restricted. And screening can safely open borders for those without access to vaccination. In both cases, we need a secure system to efficiently integrate the checking of vaccine or testing certificates into the travel process. The IATA Travel Pass enables travelers to securely share their health credentials with governments and airlines.”
